Market Integration through Smuggling: China's Sanction on Norwegian Salmon

Popular press accounts and the political-economics literature link awarding 2010 Nobel Peace Prize to a Chinese dissident China's trade sanction on Norway's whole, fresh/chilled salmon exports. Norway lost its dominant supplier share of market as total exports China decreased. Then, in 2011, Vietnam dramatically increased imports Norwegian salmon. A structural break divides data series into two sub-periods: July 1997 February March 2011 December 2018 (the period). This provides statistical evidence imposing an unannounced sanction. During period, Vietnam's current monthly are negatively affected by lagged imports. decrease previous from "Granger causes" increase No such relationship existed before sanction, implying that markets became integrated through smuggling.